The National Retail Federation (NRF) just unveiled its 2023 forecast, and there are good things in store for the nation’s online and brick-and-mortar retailers. During its third annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual conversation, the retail trade association expects retail sales to grow 4 to 6% this year, hitting between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion. This positive sign for retailers follows 2022’s 7% annual growth over 2021, with retail sales reaching $4.9 trillion. And while 2023’s growth will be lower than 2022’s, the forecast is above the pre-pandemic average annual retail sales growth rate of 3.6%.

E-commerce will also have a banner year in 2023, with sales projected to rise 10 to 12% increasing between $1.41 trillion and $1.43 trillion. (Online sales are factored into the overall growth noted above.)           But post-pandemic, e-commerce has shifted from a stand-alone sales phenomenon to being one part of consumers’ shopping experiences. According to the NRF, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process. As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70% of total retail sales.” So for consumers, their ideal retailers offer in-store and online shopping and provide a seamless experience, meaning they can buy online and return in-store and vice versa. This echoes the findings of a survey from Momentive, a market research platform, which says the future of retail is “hybrid." Key findings from a Momentive study show:             56% of adults prefer to shop both online and in-store

• 88% say it’s important for a business to have in-store and online purchase options
  • 24% are less likely to purchase online from a business that doesn’t also have a storefront                                                                                 Where consumers are buying

Sales statistics from February, the latest available, show consumers are shopping in various types of stores. Year-over-year sales from February 2022 to February 2023 show:                                                               Health and personal care stores: +8%

• Clothing and clothing accessory stores: +4.1%
• Sporting goods stores: +3.4%
• Building materials and garden supply stores: +0.7%
• Furniture and home furnishings stores: +0.4%
• Electronics and appliance stores: -2.2%

NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay doesn’t find February’s sales growth surprising. He says it “reflects consumers’ ability and willingness to spend thoughtfully on household priorities.” Despite recent economic volatility, Shay says, “the underlying fundamentals in the consumer economy remain on solid footing as jobs and wages are growing, and inflation is trending down.”